It may be averted – Ikokwu, Odumakin, Ameh, Uwazurike
•Most Nigerians ‘re not taken with disintegration – Fayemi
By Clifford Ndujihe, Politics Editor
FIVE years after it did not materialise, there are recent fears that Nigeria’s break-up prediction of the US Nationwide Intelligence Council, NIC, should still occur.
In a 2005 report entitled:’’Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future,’’ that checked out Africa’s supposed future in 15 years, the NIC predicted that Nigeria would possibly disintegrate in 2015.
Clearly, Nigeria was getting ready to implosion in 2015 on account of the thick dangerous blood generated by the presidential election. Nonetheless, former President Goodluck Jonathan’s acceptance of defeat, and calling to congratulate Main Common Muhammadu Buhari, retd, who was on his approach to victory, as the ultimate outcomes have been being tallied, averted a nationwide calamity.
Then, Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Social gathering, PDP, was the incumbent president. Buhari ran on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, APC, a occasion that was cobbled two years earlier. Jonathan’s loss was the primary and to date, the one time a sitting president misplaced an election in Nigeria’s electioneering historical past.
With change of presidency anchored on a change agenda, the expectations of fast transformation of the nation have been excessive. 5 years down the road, it’s debatable whether or not or not the nation is extra united, fuelling fears that the NIC prediction might nonetheless occur because the timeline was 15 years and 2020 marks the fifteenth yr of the report.
The doomsday report
The doc was launched in March 2005 after a one-day convention convened by Nationwide Intelligence Council two months earlier, the place prime US consultants on Sub-Saharan Africa mentioned doubtless tendencies within the area over the following 15 years.
The report was primarily based on a whole lot of assumptions and Nigeria’s break-up was primarily based on the opportunity of a coup by junior army officers. It was an opinion held by one of many discussants.
It learn partially: “Different potential developments would possibly speed up decline in Africa and scale back even our restricted optimism. Crucial can be the outright collapse of Nigeria. Whereas presently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a nasty marriage that every one dislike however dare not go away, there are potentialities that would disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja.
“Crucial can be a junior officer coup that would destabilise the nation to the extent that open warfare breaks out in lots of locations in a sustained method.”
Warning on the regional and international penalties of Nigeria imploding, it stated: “If Nigeria have been to turn out to be a failed state, it might drag down a big a part of the West African area. Even state failure in small international locations equivalent to Liberia has the impact of destabilising total neighbourhoods. If hundreds of thousands have been to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the encompassing international locations, as much as and together with Ghana, can be destabilised.
“Additional, a failed Nigeria in all probability couldn’t be reconstituted for a few years if ever and never with out huge worldwide help.”
Present harmful alerts
How the 2 weeks #EndSARS protests panned out throughout the nation has uncovered a significant fault line between the North and South.
Whereas the protesters and leaders together with governors within the three geo-political zones of the South vehemently opposed SARS, and SWAT that was hurriedly introduced as substitute for SARS by the Inspector Common of Police, Mohammed Adamu, the situation was totally different within the North.
Though, there have been pockets of the E#EndSARS protests within the North, the Coalition of Northern Teams, CNG, carried out protests towards insecurity. Northern governors opposed scrapping of SARS and known as for the deployment of the operatives to the North to combat insurgents, bandits and different types of insecurity.
In addition to, in contrast to up to now when agitation for secession was localised within the South-East and particularly amongst some Igbo angling for Biafra Republic, there’s now agitations for Oduduwa Republic by some Yoruba and Kwararafa Republic by some individuals within the Center-Belt. That is as calls by a number of eminent Nigerians for restructuring of the nation and devolution of powers to the federating models have reached a crescendo.
We ‘ve an obligation to avert the prediction – Odumakin
Nationwide Publicity Secretary of the Pan-Yoruba Socio-Political Organisation, Afenifere, stated the prediction might be averted however lamented that the federal government is allegedly fast-tracking its fulfilment.
‘’We have now an obligation to avert the prediction however we’ve a deaf regime that appears to be doing time beyond regulation to convey it to move. It will be tragic if Nigeria packs up with out fulfilling her potentials,’’ he stated.
Acceptance of existential realities ‘ll save Nigeria – Ikokwu
Talking on the fears in Nigeria , Second Republic politician and elder statesman, Chief Man Ikokwu, stated: ‘’Any break-up of the nation could also be the results of full rejections of existential realities. It might result in a big variation of phrases of co-operation in a federal or con-federal governance system mutually useful and restructured modus operandi for the entities concerned for his or her manufacturing somewhat than consumption economic system.
The true subject is on good governance of the Nation. Our modus operandi should replicate our cultural heterogeneous circumstances which should not be primarily based on a Unitarian governance system.
‘’Our governance system have to be restructured no longer delayed for much longer. The 1999 Structure is a lifeless contraption with 68 Government Listing and Centrally dominated Concurrent Listing. The above are prescriptions for dictatorial orientation which has been dominant for 50 years. The above-mentioned prescriptions have negated the skills of our youths to unlock their present disabilities and incapacities. The endemic contraption known as the Amalgamation Treaty of 100 years legally expired in 2014 therefore the 2014 Abuja Confab. What’s legally required is a reputable nationwide referendum and dissolution of the current skewed INEC-OUS system.’’
Nigeria constructed on a defective basis – Ameh
To the Nationwide Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Events, CUPP, Excessive Chief Peter Ameh, Nigeria is constructed on a fallacious basis and the dangerous basis is weakened by dangerous management.
He advised Saturday Vanguard: ‘’The fact is that the one actuality our colonial grasp succeeded to amalgamate in 1914 is a failed state and never a nation. Nigeria from the onset is a ticking time bomb, ready to detonate. The North and the South can by no means coexist in absolute peace due to the extent of mutual mistrust.
‘’The core rudiments upon which a rustic is based don’t exist in Nigeria. There isn’t any understanding, no unity, no peace and undoubtedly no patriotism occasioned by a few years of misrule. Our nationalists tried so arduous to promote to Nigerians the white man’s lie that the North and South are one. Immediately, the individuals really feel detached.
‘’Schooling is accessible. Schooling has helped the individuals to see the sunshine and ask questions and demand for solutions. Sadly, this mild solely shines within the South, not within the North. For the North, it’s largely about sentiment and pursuits. Thus, northern illiteracy has turn out to be an exquisite and highly effective device within the arms of its elites. That’s the reason the peaceable protesters are seen from a completely totally different mild, who by the way in which is preventing for the collective proper of each Nigerian.
The unfolding occasions of right this moment are merely the predestined unavoidable eventuality. It doesn’t take a soothsayer to foretell it.
‘’We have now all listened whereas our president addressed the nation on the unlucky outburst of legislation and order. The truth that the president really took out his time to handle the difficulty of the looting of products within the Palace of Oba of Lagos however intentionally ignored to, at the very least, point out passively the Lekki toll gate bloodbath of harmless, innocent and defenceless Nigerians by the Nigerian military ought to inform you all you’ll want to learn about how dedicated our leaders are in the direction of sustaining a one-Nigeria however not a lot delicate to the yearnings and plight of Nigerians.’’
Doomsday prediction not spectacular – Uwazuruike
Former President of Igbo mental think-tank, Aka-Ikenga, and lawyer, Chief Goody Uwazurike, stated the NIC prediction was not spectacular as a result of anyone with the information of occasions in Nigeria might have arrived at the prediction.
Conceal authentic message
His phrases: ‘’Any clever one who has the typical information of the goings on in Nigeria will predict that there can be an implosion! The ruling class in Nigeria has so mismanaged the democratic course of that the collapse is predictable.
‘’The manager arm of Nigeria has so desecrated the independence of the judiciary and the legislature that the heads of the 2 arms at the moment are predictable. The American research group accurately learn the modus operandi of the ruling elite. The spirit of democracy has departed from Nigeria. At some point, the acts of impunity will boomerang on Nigeria.’’
Most Nigerians need good governance not break-up, says Fayemi
Governor Ekiti State and Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Discussion board, NGF, Dr Kayode Fayemi, in an interview, just lately down-played agitations for Biafra Republic, Oduduwa Republic, and KwararafaRepublic as political posturing
His phrases: ‘’These individuals speaking about Oduduwa Republic or Kwararafa Republic, who’re they talking for? Who gave them the mandate to talk for Yoruba? Did they seek the advice of the Yoruba individuals and the Yoruba individuals advised them that they need Oduduwa Republic? If in case you have Oduduwa Republic, the place will the capital be? That’s only a tip of the iceberg. You’ll be able to ensure that all Yoruba individuals are not on the identical web page, neither are all Jukuns or Hausa on the identical web page regardless of efforts to keep up the impression of a monolithic Yoruba, Igbo or Hausa-Fulani id.
‘’In case you convey IPOB, you’re going to get the identical suggestions. I believe the one Nigeria I need is Nigeria that serves all people and works for everyone. I don’t know any cheap Nigerian who needs Nigeria to interrupt up. Folks simply consider that Nigeria just isn’t working in the way in which and method it ought to work for them. So if they’re agitating, I don’t suppose they’re agitating for a break- up. They simply need the powers that be to listen to and hearken to their pains and take some motion.
Some extremists would go within the route of unilateral declaration of independence or secession. It’s inside their proper to do this so long as they conduct themselves throughout the ambit of the legislation, it’s a democracy, however most cheap, and critical Nigerians don’t play this sport.
Have a look at the demography: 65 per cent of Nigerians are beneath 30. They don’t seem to be on this ego maniacal pursuit of lionising ethnic id – you might be Hausa, you might be Igbo, this and that. No. Have a look at music, have a look at info expertise, look on the areas our younger individuals are excelling, they’re marrying each other, they’re rising up in every single place, they aren’t offered to this ethnic agenda in any respect.
‘’As a rustic, we want a Nigeria that works for each Nigerian. The people who find themselves simply entertaining themselves with Oduduwa Republic,