On Saturday, following a number of days of vote counting in key states which adopted Election Day, former Vice President Joe Biden was declared to be the winner of the 2020 presidential election. LSE US Centre Director Professor Peter Trubowitz seems on the three essential political challenges which President Elect Biden is more likely to face, and whether or not Trump’s populist politics nonetheless have a future in US politics.
What stands out in regards to the election?
Many issues, however over the weekend I discovered myself reflecting on how skilled and peaceable it was and stays. There was lots of room for mischief on this election cycle and aside from a few remoted incidents, we’ve got not seen it. That may be a credit score to the nation’s many state and native election employees, the federal intelligence providers that “hardened” the electoral course of in opposition to international interference, and to the American individuals who did their civic obligation and voted in file numbers within the midst of a pandemic. Given the massive turnout in voting this election and the unprecedented manner it needed to be managed due to the COVID-19 well being disaster, it went easily despite what many had feared.
What are Biden’s essential political challenges?
Biden faces three essential challenges, I believe. The primary is to revive a way of normalcy to American political life after 4 years of Trump’s unhinged method to governing: to revive competency in governing, to indicate empathy to these much less lucky, and maybe most significantly, to respect the reality. This isn’t an excessive amount of to ask and Biden is the best particular person on the proper second to assist put the ship again on target. Second, Biden can even must rebuild the Govt Department whose numerous departments have been weakened by Trump’s efforts to eliminate skilled civil servants and substitute them with “second stringers,” go away them empty, or empower individuals to hole them out from inside. That is going to take time however most of those appointments won’t require Republican approval. Lastly, there’s the necessity to ship on the numerous ahead trying, progressive insurance policies that he ran on. Ideally, Biden would safe legislative consent for his coverage proposals to make them harder to overturn sooner or later. Nonetheless, as a result of Republicans are more likely to management the Senate, Biden will likely be pressured to rely far more on government orders to get issues executed in terms of local weather change, well being care, and international coverage — greater than I believe he would favor. Search for Biden to shortly rejoin the Paris local weather accord, recommit to the World Well being Group, rescind Trump’s journey ban on Muslim nations, and cease making an attempt to deport Dreamers – those that got here to the US as kids with out documentation.
Does Trumpism have a future in American politics?
Should you imply by Trumpism, anti-globalism, populism (we vs them), and xenophobia, I don’t suppose it’s going away anytime quickly in America. Trump himself could determine to run for president in 2024, however even when he doesn’t, different Republicans will decide up the mantle and run with it, considering it’s one of the best ways to safe the Republican nomination and in the event that they drop the racism, an excellent marketing campaign platform for successful a basic election in America. In spite of everything, Trump gained 70 million votes. That may be a fairly spectacular vote tally and considerably greater than Trump gained in 2016. A lot of the post-election denial of the end result we see amongst Trump “wannabes” within the Republican social gathering like Senators Tom Cotton (R-AR), Josh Hawley (R-MO), and Ted Cruz (R-TX) displays a powerful want to maintain the “motion” alive and probably, to marketing campaign for the presidency in 2024 on prices that “the 2020 election was stolen.”
What sort of function will Vice-President Elect Kamala Harris play within the new administration?
I believe Harris could have a big coverage portfolio and be somebody that Biden depends on for political counsel — as he places it, the final one within the room with him after all of the coverage advisors go away. Biden has indicated greater than as soon as that he views himself as transitional chief. The extra totally built-in Harris is in coverage deliberations and decision-making, the stronger her declare to be Biden’s successor will likely be. I might search for her to play a important function within the space of race and policing, voter disenfranchisement, and civil rights — no small factor at a time when race is roiling America’s politics.
What ought to we anticipate from Trump within the coming days?
Slowly coming to phrases with the truth that he has misplaced the election. Calling for vote recounts is a waste of time (recounts hardly ever make a distinction) and Trump’s argument that the “repair was in” by way of mail-in ballots doesn’t cross muster. The issue for Trump is that many down-ballot Republicans who had been operating for election did in actual fact win. If mail in ballots didn’t stop different Republicans on the poll from successful, why ought to Individuals suppose these ballots clarify his defeat? The true situation right here is how quickly Trump accepts defeat, how he frames it, and the way a lot injury he could do on the way in which out of workplace.
- This Q&A is predicated on an interview with Bloomberg on 9 November.
Word: This text offers the views of the creator, and never the place of USAPP– American Politics and Coverage, nor of the London College of Economics.
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In regards to the creator
Peter Trubowitz – LSE US Centre
Peter Trubowitz is Professor of Worldwide Relations, and Director of the LSE’s US Centre. His essential analysis pursuits are within the fields of worldwide safety and comparative international coverage, with particular deal with American grand technique and international coverage. He additionally writes and feedback ceaselessly on US social gathering politics and elections and the way they form and are formed by America’s altering place on this planet.