Since 1996, I’ve written over 1,200 columns and letters to the editor for numerous Guam publications. About 1,000 have been in The Guam Day by day Submit or its predecessor, the Marianas Selection. I take advantage of these columns in my courses and I additionally use them to share native analysis with the neighborhood.
The folks of Guam love to speak about politics and these columns and analysis create a great reference to the general public. Beginning round June, I started to debate the Guam elections and I’ll take a while as we speak to go over my election cycle feedback.
In my June 18 column, I mentioned that I believed 5 senators would rotate out of the Guam Legislature. I additionally mentioned that not less than three or extra former senators would doubtless return. I used to be unsuitable on the guess that the feminine majority could shift again to a male majority. I additionally thought the Democrats would doubtless retain the bulk. I discussed that 2020 would really feel like a stealth election. All the conventional election-related actions have been absent, however speak radio gave the impression to be regular. I mentioned these items over 4 months earlier than the election.
On June 25, I mentioned once more I believed 5 senators wouldn’t return. Finally, 4 didn’t return. On Aug. 6, I mentioned that about 18 candidates have been battling strongly for the fifteen open seats. By the weekend earlier than the election, this quantity was right down to 17 with John Ananich because the main new candidate.
On Sept. 3, I mentioned all else equal, a runoff off between Robert Underwood and Michael San Nicolas can be wanted. I additionally mentioned there was potential for the Republicans to compete if they may cling collectively. Often, Republicans have 38%-42% in single-candidate basic elections. In 2020, there was a significant Republican crossover on the basic election supporting San Nicolas. The Republican Social gathering clearly has two robust factions and it will play out within the runoff. I additional said on this column that the 4 returning senators would do properly.
On Sept. 24, I shared the sorts of questions I take advantage of to information election analysis and thought. On Oct. 22, I continued to surprise if the Republicans would cross over, which they did. The present query is, will the opposite Republican faction go to former Del. Underwood or not?.
On Oct. 29, I speculated that the Legislature wouldn’t be affected very a lot by the pandemic. I additionally restated not less than 10 of the 12 senators can be reelected. I didn’t suppose the pandemic will have an effect on Gov. Leon Guerrero within the 2022 race. In associated media interviews, I mentioned that Underwood might rise up to 54% in a runoff. The 54% cut up was apparent on the basic election. However it should take a variety of work to get elected within the runoff.
Polling isn’t a crystal ball and I take advantage of a variety of different analysis strategies to kind a variety of my opinions. Politics is an artwork, not science.
Ron McNinch teaches on the College of Guam College of Enterprise and Public Administration