Agenda 2050

By Obadiah Mailafia

With out a lot fanfare and drums, the Federal Authorities just lately launched the Nigeria Agenda 2050 programme in Abuja. Agenda 2050 is a long-term perspective plan that goals to reposition our nation as one of many main nations of the twenty first century throughout the subsequent three a long time. The whole programme is being anchored by the Federal Ministry of Finance, Planning and Funds, which additionally serves because the secretariat.

Agenda 2050 is a long-term perspective technique that might be carried out inside a framework of five-year Medium-Time period Nationwide Improvement Plans, MNDPs.   A number of Technical Working Teams, TWGs, have been created.

They vary from the Macroeconomics Modelling Group to the Worldwide Relations and Exterior Commerce Group, of which yours sincerely is a member. The Central Working Group coordinates the varied technical teams and is anticipated to course of their inputs into an internally constant and coherent end result.

I daresay that if Agenda 2050 had not existed it will have been essential to invent it; coming, because it does, on the ending of the Financial Restoration and Development Plan, ERGP, masking the years 2017 to 2020.

The ERGP was born as a baby of necessity. It got here on the wake of one of many worst recessions in residing reminiscence. The APC-led administration was caught completely ill-prepared when world costs collapsed in 2015. It took them six months to type a cupboard. The delay compounded the financial disaster which ensued.

That is what occurred in Could 2015. And since they weren’t outfitted to control, they’d no financial programme and no improvement technique. Even the ERGP was one thing that was form of foisted upon them. It was not a really home-grown resolution as many would suppose. I used to be a bit stunned when the younger males from a prestigious world consulting agency have been the important thing folks driving the undertaking.

A few of them might have been my college students once I was a enterprise college Affiliate Professor in London within the nineties. I perceive the mindset of the skilled world bourgeoise. They merely undergo the movement of executing a undertaking that rakes in hundreds of thousands of {dollars} for the agency. Their coronary heart is rarely in it. In addition they added insult to harm by bringing one other knowledgeable all the best way from Malaysia to help with the implementation framework.

The person, to my information, had just about no understanding of the dynamics and peculiarities of the Nigerian political economic system. ERGP was, at greatest, a chic waste of time and sources.

Agenda 2050 is coming at a troublesome time in our historical past. We’re a tragically divided nation. The fissures in our physique politic have by no means been deeper than they’re right now. Belief is at a deficit. Most Nigerians don’t belief this authorities and their intentions.

The alleged undertaking to construct a $1.9 billion rail line from Katsina to Maradi in Niger Republic, for instance, has outraged Nigerians groaning below the load of poverty, larger petrol and electrical energy costs and starvation. It would patently be treasonable. To borrow cash from the Chinese language below business charges to assemble a rail line main to a different man’s nation, for which Nigerians but unborn should pay, shouldn’t be solely depraved and unconscionable; it’s excessive treason.

Lengthy-term perspective plans are good. However they’re greatest carried out below an environment of belief and mutual solidarity. My humble studying of world financial historical past teaches me that the best leaps in social and financial progress are made when nations develop a way of collective objective and future. I concern that this authorities, no matter it comes up with, is unlikely to win the minds and hearts of most Nigerians merely due to the belief deficit.

Nigeria jettisoned financial improvement planning within the eighties, when the IBB navy junta was persuaded to pursue neoliberal “structural adjustment programmes”.   Strictly talking, programmes comparable to Imaginative and prescient 2020 masking the years 2010-2020 and the Nationwide Financial Empowerment and Improvement Technique, NEEDS, have been largely “rolling plans” quite than financial improvement plans as technically understood.

A latest survey by the World Financial institution reveals that in 2019, some 143 nations went again to the custom of financial improvement planning as in comparison with 32 within the yr 2000. It appears clear that the coverage pendulum is swinging again from neo-liberal free market methods of macroeconomic improvement coverage administration to extra interventionist planning paradigms.

Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 continues to be within the early phases. However there are necessary classes that should be imbibed.

First, a transparent imaginative and prescient is crucial. It’s mentioned that, with out imaginative and prescient, the folks perish. We should evolve a transparent and well-articulated imaginative and prescient of what our nation might be three a long time down the highway. And that imaginative and prescient should be nationwide in outlook and should be one that’s shared by the nationwide elites in addition to the generality of the populace.

Personally, we’d like a imaginative and prescient of Nigeria of the yr 2050 to be that of a first-rate industrial-technological nation that can also be a affluent democracy and one of many main nations of the twenty first century. We would like a rustic that’s progressive and free and that nurtures the creativity and power of its peoples in an environment that respects human rights, the rule of legislation, whereas guaranteeing equal alternatives for all.

Setting a transparent imaginative and prescient, with reasonable targets, is among the many most necessary components for the success of Agenda 2050.I envision an economic system with a GDP of US$2 trillion and a median per capita revenue of about US$18,000. This could place us in GDP phrases at about the identical dimension Italy is right now.

By 2050, Nigeria can be the third most populous nation on earth, at 410 million. We might be following proper behind India and China and forward of the US and Brazil. When it comes to GDP rating, we must always purpose to be not less than throughout the prime 15 globally.

Equally essential is the existence of a rigorous implementation framework. Nigeria has not been quick on concepts and plans. The satan, as they are saying, has all the time been on the nitty-gritty of implementation.

A profitable implementation framework requires a transparent understanding of possession, articulation of monitorable milestones and targets, a system for monitoring and analysis; accountability for outcomes; adaptability within the face of sudden contingencies; and an efficient communication framework to get all stakeholders on board.

Linked to implementation is the crucial of designing a reputable and efficient financing framework. Cash is a crucial however not a enough situation, for planning success.

However we’d like all plans to be lowered to bankable tasks – tasks for velocity trains, harbours, ports, new cities, highways, airports and energy stations. We should plan rigorously on easy methods to mobilise capital each internally and externally to finance our formidable tasks.

Equally necessary is constructing efficient improvement partnerships. Improvement partnerships should be framed between authorities and the organised personal sector, civil society, NGOs, girls and youth teams and different key stakeholders. We additionally want partnerships with worldwide improvement businesses and bilateral support businesses that share our imaginative and prescient for the long run.

Lastly, let me emphasise the significance of benchmarking. Whereas mobilising our whole populace in direction of reaching the Agenda 2050 imaginative and prescient, we have to benchmark ourselves in opposition to some economically profitable nations for the aim of collective studying. I’ve all the time believed that financial improvement is in the end a studying course of.

No nation is ideal and no nation has all of it. However we will study from the achievements of others in sure essential sectors. The nations I keep in mind for benchmarking functions are Germany, South Korea, UAE, Singapore and Brazil.

Let me seize this chance to want all my light readers a contented sixtieth independence anniversary which comes up on Thursday, October 1.

VANGUARD

 





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