The primary three weeks of the NFL season has produced extra factors than any opening three weeks in league historical past. Issues didn’t decelerate on Thursday night time when two of the worst groups within the league put a mixed 65 factors on the scoreboard.
Betting on the “over” in every of the primary 49 video games this season would have rewarded the bettor with a thoughts boggling 30-19 report. Oddsmakers have begun to make changes, and the present over/below level totals are the very best weekly averages posted in latest reminiscence.
Theories abound as to why level totals are up within the NFL. Some individuals really feel as if the pandemic has stored defensive items from having sufficient follow time to be efficient. Others really feel as if the dearth of followers has made highway video games much less hostile, resulting in fewer errors by visiting offenses.
My very own principle is that offenses are benefitting from a slight change in the way in which video games are being officiated. Offensive holding penalties are being referred to as much less, whereas defensive cross interference calls are on the rise.
In some unspecified time in the future the oddsmakers are going to go too far in elevating the purpose totals, and as a sports activities bettor, it’s vital to start to fade the overs on the proper time. It’s by no means enjoyable to take a seat again and root for factors to not be scored, however taking the “Below” when the time is true will likely be very helpful to your bankroll administration.
Final week’s picks:
BENGALS (+4 ½) @ Eagles: This recreation verified the 2 major opinions I had coming into this matchup: Joe Burrow is sweet at soccer, and the Philadelphia Eagles should not. Carson Wentz continued his poor play whereas Joe Burrow confirmed nice poise. Burrow stored his inferior roster aggressive earlier than the sport resulted in a tie. Bengals 23, Eagles 23 – WIN
PACKERS (+3) @ Saints: When you consider the Saints, you consider future Corridor of Fame quarterback Drew Brees, and also you consider Sean Payton, the revolutionary offensive minded head coach. However the Saints are one notch decrease on the dominance meter than they’ve been prior to now, and when the oddsmakers are giving factors to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, you are taking the factors and run. Rodgers accomplished passes to eight distinction receivers and led the Packers to the victory. Packers 37, Saints 27 – WIN
STEELERS (-4) vs. Texans: This choose didn’t look good as Deshaun Watson and the Texans constructed up a 14-3 lead early within the 2nd quarter. However the Steelers made changes on protection to take Watson out of his consolation zone. On the opposite facet of the ball, the Texans had been unable to cease the dashing recreation of the Steelers. This recipe allowed for the Steelers to take over the sport and cruise to the victory. Steelers 28, Texans 21 – WIN
CHIEFS (+3 ½) @ Ravens: I don’t assume anybody may have predicted what befell in the course of the marquee matchup on Monday night time that includes two elite quarterbacks in Pat Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. The Ravens took a fast 3-0 lead earlier than the Chiefs utterly dominated the subsequent two quarters of play and led 27-10 on the half. Baltimore had no solutions within the 2nd half because the Chiefs rolled to the victory. Mahomes handed for 387 yards whereas the Kansas Metropolis protection held Jackson to solely 97 yards within the air. Chiefs 34, Ravens 20 – WIN
OVER 61.5 dashing yards by Austin Ekeler – Panthers @ Chargers (-110): The Chargers had been a landing favourite coming into the sport. However the Panthers constructed up an 18-7 lead, forcing the Chargers to place the ball within the air. Ekeler ended up simply wanting the quantity wanted to money. Panthers 21, Chargers 16 – Austin Ekeler – 59 dashing yards – LOSS
UNDER 5 ½ mixed workforce TD’s – Bears @ Falcons (-155): By way of 3 quarters of play it regarded like we had been going to nail this choose. The sport was going as I anticipated, with the Falcons build up a lead, and the Bears being too inept on offense to attain sufficient TD’s. However the Bears benched Mitchell Trubisky in favor of Nick Foles, who proceeded to throw three 4th quarter touchdowns to knock us out of the money. Bears 30, Falcons 26 – LOSS
This week’s picks:
COWBOYS (-4 ½) vs. Browns: With out the good thing about a miracle on-side kick restoration, the Cowboys can be 0-3. And whereas their two losses had been towards two gifted groups within the Rams and Seahawks, there are not any ethical victories within the NFL. The Browns are driving excessive after again to again wins towards the Bengals and Washington. However the final time Cleveland went up towards a high quality workforce they had been blown out by the Ravens. The Dallas protection has to get higher this week in the event that they wish to save their season. And whereas Cleveland has a stud working again in Nick Chubb to go together with a gifted vast receiver group, the Cowboys are too gifted on paper to lose this recreation at dwelling. Search for the Cowboys to cowl.
SEAHAWKS (-6 ½) @ Dolphins: This has all of the makings of a traditional entice recreation for the Seahawks. Their protection is horrible and so they’re coming off an emotional win towards the Cowboys. Miami was capable of notch its first win of the season final week towards the Jaguars. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was extraordinarily environment friendly within the win. However the psychological make-up of this Seahawks workforce is particular, and most of that is because of their chief in quarterback Russ Wilson. Search for the Dolphins to make some noise early, however in the long run the Seahawks will beat the quantity to realize and transfer to 4-0 on the season towards the unfold.
CARDINALS (-3 ½) @ Panthers: Arizona has been coughing up the soccer at an alarming fee. Quarterback Kyler Murray has extra interceptions than landing passes this season. The Panthers are nonetheless reeling from dropping celebrity working again Christian McCaffrey to damage. They had been capable of get a win final week however that was a results of their protection creating 4 takeaways. Murray threw three interceptions final week towards the Lions, but solely misplaced the sport by three factors. The Panthers are 1-6-1 towards the unfold of their final eight video games. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS of their final six video games towards groups with a dropping report. If the Cardinals maintain onto the soccer, their protection will hold the Panthers in verify permitting a straightforward cowl on this one.
UNDER (48) Giants @ Rams: This recreation is ready as much as be a blowout win for the Rams. The large query is whether or not the Giants will have the ability to dent the scoreboard sufficient to have an effect on the general level whole. The Giants offense has been in shambles and have become worse when star working again Saquon Barkley was misplaced for the season resulting from damage. What can even assist the purpose whole is the truth that the Rams have run the soccer on 54% p.c of their performs, which is the very best proportion within the NFL. Search for the Rams to attain greater than sufficient factors to win the sport handily, whereas conserving the Giants in verify sufficient to maintain the rating below the projected level whole.
OVER (29.5) Complete Factors by RAVENS (-110): The Ravens are going to wish to get the unhealthy style out of their mouths following their efficiency towards the Chiefs final Monday night time. Search for them to ship an announcement towards Washington this week and return to type on offense.