House prices rose in October on the quickest annual charge in nearly six years however the UK market is prone to face a “sharp” slowdown when the federal government’s stamp responsibility vacation ends, the mortgage lender Nationwide has warned.
The typical UK home worth jumped by 5.8% in October in contrast with the identical month final yr, to £227,826, in keeping with the UK’s largest constructing society.
The housing market has skilled a mini growth after the UK-wide coronavirus lockdown partly fuelled by the federal government’s short-term cuts to stamp responsibility, which come to an finish in March.
Costs rose by 0.8% month on month in October, following September’s 0.9% rise and a 2% leap in August. Nationwide mentioned housing exercise has “remained strong” even because the economic system weakens and unemployment rises, with mortgage approvals climbing to 91,500 in September, the best stage since 2007.
“The housing market has remained strong,” mentioned Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist. “Nevertheless, exercise is prone to gradual within the coming quarters, maybe sharply, if the labour market weakens as most analysts count on, particularly as soon as the stamp responsibility vacation expires in March.”
Financial progress slowed sharply to 2.1% in August, down from 6.4% in July, regardless of the enhance given to the hospitality sector by the federal government’s eat out to assist out scheme. The unemployment charge is on the rise – hitting 4.5% for the three months to the top of August – with job losses set to mount following the chancellor Rishi Sunak’s transfer to implement a less generous furlough scheme after Saturday.
“Whereas the UK teeters on the point of a nationwide lockdown, the housing market continues to defy typical knowledge, as pent-up demand is exacerbated by patrons speeding to beat the stamp responsibility vacation deadline,” mentioned Man Harrington, the chief government of the residential lender Glenhawk.
“The warning lights are nicely and really flashing, nonetheless, with grim unemployment information, the inventory market in freefall and mortgage suppliers tightening their lending standards. The federal government should hope that predictions for a deep recession don’t materialise, in any other case the inevitable collapse in gross sales volumes will shortly unwind this restoration.”
The stamp responsibility vacation for properties beneath £500,000 is about to run out on 31 March 2021, until Sunak chooses to increase it.