“It does appear to be cementing itself. It actually did appear to begin in 2010, and going ahead the divide has began to sharpen,” mentioned Christopher Larimer, a political-science professor on the College of Northern Iowa.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Vilsack and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama loved statewide success within the Nineties and 2000s, Larimer mentioned. “After which (statewide assist for Democrats in Iowa) simply appears to have cratered since then.”
Vilsack received 49 and 68 counties in his two victories in Iowa gubernatorial races, in 1998 and 2002, and his successor, Chet Culver, received 62 counties. Obama received 53 and 38 counties right here in 2008 and 2012, respectively.
Against this, on this week’s elections, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden received solely these large six counties in Iowa — the identical six that fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton received 4 years in the past. Republican Donald Trump carried the state each years.
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield didn’t fare significantly better this 12 months: She received solely eight counties in her loss to Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, including solely Cerro Gordo and Jefferson counties.
“After 2016, there have been actual questions on whether or not rural Iowa had been misplaced to Democrats for good, and whether or not Iowa was going to be put into this class of secure Republican seats,” mentioned Andrew Inexperienced, a political-science professor at Central Faculty. In 2018, Democrats flipped two congressional seats and whereas gubernatorial candidate Fred Hubbell misplaced, he did win 11 counties.