Joe Biden is now the favorite to win the presidency, and Republicans are favored to maintain Senate management — however, each outcome is removed from sure. And Democrats did not win the resounding victory that pre-election polls had urged they might.
Right here’s the place we stand after a topsy-turvy election evening, through which the state of affairs shifted a number of occasions:
  • The result is unclear in six swing states — Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — and all are nonetheless counting votes. We could get some closing vote counts at present, whereas others may take a couple of days.
  • “Biden’s the favorite, even when narrowly, nearly all over the place,” Nate Cohn of The Instances tweeted, itemizing 5 of the six states above (all, however, North Carolina). Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics agreed: “Would in all probability slightly be Biden than Trump.”
  • The excellent ballots are largely mail-in ballots, that are prone to favor Biden as a result of extra Democrats than Republicans voted early this yr. He leads within the present vote rely on Nevada and Wisconsin, whereas Trump leads within the remaining 4. “I don’t assume individuals have totally internalized how Democratic these mail and absentee ballots can be in MI/PA/WI,” Nate wrote.
  • If Biden holds onto his lead in Nevada and Wisconsin, he would want to win solely one in every of three states — Georgia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania — to save a majority of electoral votes (and will nonetheless lose North Carolina).
  • The counting of ballots appears prone to be slowest in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Officers in Pennsylvania have mentioned they count on all votes to be counted by Friday.
  • Even with Biden’s seeming benefits at this level, the nation has by no means skilled an election with such heavy voting by mail, which creates important uncertainty. It’s solely potential that Trump will retain his lead within the states the place he now leads and win the election.
  • The state of affairs within the Senate is totally different — and extra favorable to Republicans. They look like in a robust place to retain Senate management, which might give them a veto over almost all of President Biden’s legislative plans.
  • Democrats wanted to win at the least 5 of the 14 aggressive Senate races and have to date gained solely two. Six races stay up within the air. The one incumbent Republicans to have misplaced are Martha McSally in Arizona and Cory Gardner in Colorado.
  • Biden, addressing supporters after midnight, urged endurance. “We consider we’re on monitor to win this election,” he mentioned. “We’re going to need to be affected person till the arduous work of tallying the votes is completed. And it ain’t over till each vote is counted, each poll is counted.”
  • Trump falsely declared himself the winner around 2:30 a.m. Japanese. He mentioned he would name on the Supreme Court docket to cease counting ballots in states the place he led whereas urging extra counting in states the place he was behind. He claimed “fraud” (for which there isn’t any proof) and he has known as the election an “embarrassment to the nation.”
  • Lots of the state polls had been flawed and underestimated assist for Republicans — once more. A giant query within the coming days can be why: Did polls once more fail to incorporate sufficient working-class white voters, as was the case in 2016? Or was it one thing else?
  • Democrats’ struggled to match their 2016 margins amongst Hispanic voters. We’ve coated that theme in some element on this e-newsletter, and it harms Biden, particularly in Florida and Texas.
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